- Will Poland recapture its historic lands in western Ukraine?
By Michael Walsh
What lies behind the apparent insanity of Poland breaking the terms of its 1993 Yamal Accords contract with Russia to trade in which gas transit was a mainstay?
“This is a significant moment in the process of gaining gas independence from Moscow by Warsaw, which took 30 years,” said Piotr Naimsky, government representative for strategic energy infrastructure. “Behind us are three decades of actions by many people who believed that Poland’s dependence on Russian supplies, Poland’s exposure to Russian blackmail, was something that needed to be eliminated.”
At the same time, he conceded that there were those in Poland who were strongly against gas independence from Russia.
According to the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, “the Polish authorities have taken a rabid position towards Russia, on the verge of insanity.”
Is there a method to such madness? In terms of political maneuvering and duplicity, Poland is experienced and has few equals. From the 12th Century to 1995, Poland was second only to Spain in terms of the percentage of years at war. However, in Poland’s case, it should be remembered that Spain, England, and France invaded, occupied, and pillaged mostly non-European territories. Poland’s conflicts were invariably with her European neighbors.
Therein lies the rub: over time, Poland, like Lithuania, lost much of its Eastern European territories. Fast forward to 1945. Warsaw, cheated and betrayed by England before World War II, lost much territory to Soviet Ukraine due to the terms of the Yalta Agreement signed in February 1945 by Winston Churchill, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and a smirking Josef Stalin.
The handover of a territory populated by over 10 million people was ratified at the Potsdam Conference in August 1945.
Eastern Poland was annexed into the Ukrainian and Belarussian Soviet Socialist Republics. Here one finds the method in Poland’s apparently lunatic resolve to abandon Russian gas supplies without waiting for the contract to end.
Washington is determined to cause as much damage to the Russian economy as possible. To achieve its ends, the Deep State has struck a deal with Warsaw: “Cut Russia out and Poland’s eastern territories will be returned.”
One can now expect Poland, with the backing of Washington, to re-occupy its former territories ceded to Ukraine. But surely, this would be to repeat Russia’s heinous crime in Ukraine’s Donbass and Luhansk regions. Not quite: the Russians invaded Ukraine whereas Poland’s invaders will be “peace-keepers” to which the Ukrainian army will be subordinate.
Surely this is outrageous and hypocritical? Yes, Michael McFaul, the former U.S. ambassador to Russia, smiles on a similar betrayal: “This is how the ‘real world’ works.”
Surely Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky won’t take a Washington-sponsored Polish invasion and occupation of western Poland lying down? Yes, he will: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will do as he has always done. He will follow orders from the Deep State which has the means to enforce them.
Will there be other casualties? Yes, Hungary and Romania also lost swathes of territory under the same Yalta and Potsdam agreements and will likely want the return of their ancient homelands. The outcome for Ukraine is a future landlocked state of as little significance as Albania.
Analyst Predicts the Collapse of Poland for its Impudent Behavior Toward Russia
- Polish intransigence, fueled by Western manipulation, may once again led it to ruin
By Michael Walsh
Described as a military expert, a leading geopolitical analyst firmly believes that the Russophobes ruling Poland are about to meet their Waterloo. Yakov Kedmi predicts that hostility towards Russia’s special operation in Ukraine could all end in tears for Poland. In fact, Kedmi is certain of it.
He says that in the context of Ukraine, Poland behaves defiantly towards the Russian Federation under the illusion that it is protected by the United States of America.
According to Kedmi, Poland performs like a mongrel protected by a much more powerful dog and so yaps far beyond its bite. This explains grandstanding statements made by politicians in Warsaw. He then mocks the speech of Polish President Andrzej Duda about Russia’s lack of desire to “fight the best army in the world,” referring to the American military, which stands four-square behind the Poles.
It would appear that during his school’s history lessons Duda was daydreaming while making paper airplanes. In 1939, emboldened by promises of support from England and the British Empire, Poland repeatedly provoked and threatened its German neighbor.
As a consequence, Poland was overrun and occupied by the armed forces of the German Reich beginning on September 1, 1939. Two weeks later, the USSR overran eastern Poland. Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov loftily declared “the Polish government has ceased to exist.”
Kedmi doesn’t take prisoners with his pen either. He argues:
It’s like you do when accompanied by street gangsters. A gang is walking, and in front is an arrogant comrade who bullies others, knowing that if he is put in his place, a big bandit will stand up for him.
However, in this case, an unpleasant surprise awaits the threadbare Polish hero. If he thinks the United States military is the best, that’s up to him. This might be so by Polish military standards.
If he thinks that the U.S. military will protect the Polish government after any cheeky prank, he is wrong. The fact that Poland is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance is meaningless. I do not think that the United States of America and other states of the Alliance will wage war for Poland. And they definitely won’t wage war for her if Polish troops enter Ukraine.
Interesting stuff but his mockery and scolding of the vainglorious Poles leave the thoughtful observer pondering about the background and purpose of the Moscow-born citizen of the Russian Federation. It would appear that the description of Kedmi merely as a “military expert” is economical with the truth.
Yakov Kedmi aka Yasha Kazakov and Yakov Iosifovish Kazakov is much more than the glib description “military expert” suggests. A former Israeli politician and diplomat, it is unclear where the true loyalties of Kedmi lie. He also headed the Nativ Liaison Bureau which organized the transfer of Eastern European Jews to Israel.
The analyst was 20 years of age when he initially applied for Aliyah, permission to relocate to Israel. Thinking he may well be a KGB agent his request was declined. The snub offended among others The Washington Post which immediately organized an international hue and cry for the spurned applicant: Henceforth, Kedmi not only became an Israeli resident and citizen but quickly shot to stardom.
While serving in the Israel Defense Forces, his close friend and ally was none other than future Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak under whom he served during the Yom Kippur War. Afterwards, the defender of Soviet tyrant Josef Stalin served as a diplomat for the Israeli government.
This leaves us with an enigma: in castigating the Warsaw regime’s virulently anti-Russian stance, is Kedmi expressing a personal opinion or is he still an Israeli diplomat? If so, is Israel’s position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ambiguous? Then again, Poles who know their history better than do most Westerners are still bitter as aloes as to how the Poles throughout history treated their Jewish population.
Michael Walsh is a Liverpool-born Irish author and award-winning journalist. The son of an Irish-American father who was an associate of Ernest Hemingway, he serves as AFP’s European Bureau Chief. He can be reached at [email protected].